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"Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty" December, 4th 2008
The programme is presented by Andrey Sharogradsky with the participation of Radio Liberty’s London correspondent Natalya Golitsyna.
Andrey Sharogradsky: Since the armed conflict between Russia and Georgia the situation in the Caucasus has remained volatile and dangerous. Since the removal of President Zyazikov and the replacement of the heads of ‘power ministries’ [Ministry of the Interior and Defense Ministry] rebel attacks have continued in Ingushetia. The situation in Chechnya and Dagestan is also unsettled. There are daily reports of casualties among the military, representatives of law enforcement agencies and heads of local administrations. The West is closely monitoring the situation in the Caucasus. A seminar on ‘Cross Fire in the Caucasus: Russian Threat to Democracy and Human Rights’ was held in London. The seminar was organized by the human rights NGO Chechnya Peace Forum. Participants of the seminar included political analysts, politicians and journalists from leading British newspapers and magazines. The seminar was chaired by Northern Ireland’s former First Minister, winner of the Nobel Prize Sir David Trimble. The Director of the Chechnya Peace Forum, Norwegian public figure and human rights activist Ivar Amundsen, discusses his views on the situation in the Caucasus in conversation with the London correspondent of Radio Liberty Natalya Golitsyna.
Ivar Amundsen: To a larger extent everybody’s attention is focused on Georgia, Abkhazia and South Ossetia at the moment. At the same time the problems of Chechnya, Ingushetia and Dagestan have been completely excluded from consideration by the West. In order to resolve existing problems in the Caucasus and to stabilize the situation which has emerged there it is important to view these problems in the context of the Georgian and South Ossetian conflicts. I think that both South Ossetia and Abkhazia were ready for the Russian annexation which was to some extent a reaction to NATO’s enlargement. The Abkhaz people would no doubt want to acquire real independence and sovereignty but the annexed republics cannot put pressure on Russia in this respect and have found themselves trapped by a semi-independence and a limited sovereignty. They cannot press for proper independence because if they gain it they would find themselves isolated both from the West and from Russia who would abandon them.
Natalya Golitsyna: Do you share Akhmed Zakaev’s opinion voiced recently at the ‘Caucasus seminar’ in London that ‘Russia has a vested interest in the instability in the Caucasus’?
Ivar Amundsen: Yes, I do. I think that this constitutes part of its policy in the Caucasus. Zakaev has also mentioned a very important point by saying that today Russia is losing its grip on Chechnya. This might sound paradoxical because Russia claims to have won the guerilla war in Chechnya. During the first Chechen campaign in 1994-1996 which claimed the lives of over one hundred thousand people the Russian population of Chechnya numbered around three hundred and fifty thousand people. At the time ethnic Russians constituted a majority in Grozny. Since the second war which started in 1999 and which is still ongoing judging by the state of emergency still in force in Chechnya, the Russian population of Chechnya has gone down from about three hundred and fifty thousand to seven-eight thousand people. In other words, almost 98% of Chechnya’s russian civilian population have left the republic and the control over the situation in Chechnya is maintained by the army alone. This is what Zakaev meant when he spoke about Russia’s losing its grip on Chechnya. Today Ramzan Kadyrov is getting bolder and bolder in his aspirations to independence. There is another striking fact. There is an odd and secret alliance (a conspiracy even) between the FSB and the armed groups of Islamic fundamentalists hiding in the Chechen forests. Their leader Doku Umarov has proclaimed the setting of a new Islamic state – an independent Caucasus Emirate. According to experts, this move which could destabilize the situation in the Caucasus is being overseen by the FSB – in order to hamper as much as possible any solution to the Caucasus dilemma.
Natalya Golitsyna: What is your opinion of Ramzan Kadyrov’s role in this situation?
Ivar Amundsen: At present Kadyrov acts under Kremlin’s patronage. But this has not always been the case. Support for Kadyrov in Moscow has increased considerably. He is friends with Putin, Sechin and many other influential figures. Many in Chechnya hate him, are afraid of him and consider him a Putin puppet. But thanks to his connections he has gained a far reaching independence [of action]. Moscow is using him as a tool in internal Chechen feuds. After the disbanding of the Vostok battalion controlled by the Yamadaev clan and protected by some people in high places in Moscow, Kadyrov has gained total control of Chechnya. This control is reinforced by the state of emergency which has not been lifted in Chechnya.
Natalya Golitsyna: What do you think the West could do given the present situation in the Caucasus?
Ivar Amundsen: We must remember that at the end of the 1990-s Russia joined the Council of Europe and signed both the Human Rights Declaration and the European Convention of Human Rights. The West must make Russia fulfill its obligations undertaken by signing these documents. During President Medvedev’s inauguration in May this year he stated that every nation had a right to self-determination. The West must put pressure on Medvedev to extend this principle not just to Abkhazia and South Ossetia but to Chechnya as well. The only thing which could solve the Chechen problem once and for all woud be free and fair elections in Chechnya under international control.
Natalya Golitsyna : Director of the Chechnya Peace Forum, Norwegian public figure and human rights activist Ivar Amundsen.
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